The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture announced the cessation of rice cultivation nationwide due to water shortages. This news has once again raised concerns about the supply and demand of the global rice market. Li Jianping, an expert in the economic position of the rice industry in the national modern agricultural industry technology system and the chief rice analyst of the agricultural product market analysis and warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that Iraq’s rice planting area and yield account for a very small share of the world, so the cessation of rice planting in the country will have almost no impact on the global rice market.
Previously, a series of policies adopted by India regarding rice exports have caused fluctuations in the international rice market. The latest data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in September pointed out that the FAO rice price index increased by 9.8% in August 2023, reaching 142.4 points, 31.2% higher than the same period last year, reaching a nominal high in 15 years. According to the sub index, India’s rice price index for August was 151.4 points, a month on month increase of 11.8%.
The FAO stated that India’s quotation has driven overall index growth, reflecting trade disruptions caused by India’s export policies.
Li Jianping stated that India is the world’s largest exporter of rice, accounting for over 40% of global rice exports. Therefore, the country’s rice export restrictions will to some extent push up international rice prices, especially affecting the food security of African countries. Meanwhile, Li Jianping stated that the global rice trade volume is not large, with a trade scale of about 50 million tons/year, accounting for less than 10% of the production, and is not easily affected by market speculation.
In addition, rice cultivation areas are relatively concentrated, and Southeast Asia, South Asia, and southern China can achieve two or three crops per year. The planting time span is large, and there is strong substitutability between main producing countries and different varieties Overall, compared to the prices of agricultural products such as wheat, corn, and soybeans, the fluctuation in international rice prices is relatively small.
Post time: Sep-28-2023