After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the rise in world food prices brought about an impact on world food security, which made the world more fully realize that the essence of food security is a problem of world peace and development.
In 2023/24, affected by the high international prices of agricultural products, the global total output of cereals and soybeans reached a record high again, making the prices of various food varieties in market-oriented countries after the listing of new grains fall sharply. However, due to the extreme inflation brought about by the issuance of super currency by the US Federal Reserve in Asia, the price of rice in the international market rose sharply to hit a record high in order to control domestic inflation and control rice exports in India.
Market controls in China, India, and Russia have affected their food production growth in 2024, but overall, world food production in 2024 is at a high level.
Worthy of great attention, the global gold price continues to hit a record high, the accelerated depreciation of the world’s currencies, the global food prices there is upward pressure, once the annual production and demand gap, the main food prices may hit a record high again, so the current need to pay great attention to food production, to prevent shocks.
Global cereal cultivation
In 2023/24, the world cereal area will be 75.6 million hectares, an increase of 0.38% over the previous year. The total output reached 3.234 billion tons, and the yield per hectare was 4,277 kg/ha, up 2.86% and 3.26% over the previous year, respectively. (The total rice output was 2.989 billion tons, up 3.63% from the previous year.)
In 2023/24, the agricultural meteorological conditions in Asia, Europe and the United States are generally good, and the higher food prices support the improvement of farmers’ planting enthusiasm, bringing about an increase in the unit yield and area of world food crops.
Among them, the sown area of wheat, corn and rice in 2023/24 was 601.5 million hectares, down 0.56% from the previous year; The total output reached 2.79 billion tons, an increase of 1.71%; The yield per unit area was 4638 kg/ha, an increase of 2.28% over the previous year.
Production in Europe and South America recovered after drought in 2022; The decline in rice production in South and South-East Asia has had a clear negative impact on developing countries.
Global food prices
In February 2024, the global food composite price index * was US $353 / ton, down 2.70% month-on-month and 13.55% year-on-year; In January-February 2024, the average global composite food price was $357 / ton, down 12.39% year-on-year.
Since the new crop year (beginning in May), the global comprehensive food prices have declined, and the average composite price from May to February was 370 US dollars/ton, down 11.97% year-on-year. Among them, the average composite price of wheat, corn and rice in February was 353 US dollars/ton, down 2.19% month-on-month and 12.0% year-on-year; The average value in January-February 2024 was $357 / ton, down 12.15% year-on-year; The average for the new crop year from May to February was $365 / ton, down $365 / ton year-on-year.
The overall grain price index and the price index of the three major cereals declined significantly in the new crop year, indicating that the overall supply situation in the new crop year has improved. Current prices are generally down to levels last seen in July and August 2020, and a continued downward trend could adversely affect global food production in the New Year.
Global grain supply and demand balance
In 2023/24, the total grain output of rice after rice was 2.989 billion tons, an increase of 3.63% over the previous year, and the increase in output made the price drop significantly.
The total global population is expected to be 8.026 billion, an increase of 1.04% over the previous year, and the growth of food production and supply exceeds the growth of the world population. Global cereal consumption was 2.981 billion tons, and annual ending stocks were 752 million tons, with a safety factor of 25.7%.
Per capita output was 372.4 kg, 1.15% higher than the previous year. In terms of consumption, ration consumption is 157.8 kg, feed consumption is 136.8 kg, other consumption is 76.9 kg, and the overall consumption is 371.5 kg. Kilograms. The fall in prices will bring about an increase in other consumption, which will inhibit the price to continue to fall in the later period.
Global cereal production Outlook
According to the current global overall price calculation, the global grain sowing area in 2024 is 760 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 4,393 kg/ha, and the world total output is 3,337 million tons. The output of rice was 3.09 billion tons, an increase of 3.40% over the previous year.
According to the development trend of the area and yield per unit area of the world’s major countries, by 2030, the global grain sowing area will be about 760 million hectares, the yield per unit area will be 4,748 kg/hectare, and the world’s total output will be 3.664 billion tons, lower than the previous period. Slower growth in China, India and Europe has led to lower estimates of global grain production by area.
By 2030, India, Brazil, the United States and China will be the world’s largest food producers. In 2035, the global grain sowing area is expected to reach 789 million hectares, with a yield of 5,318 kg/ha, and a total world production of 4.194 billion tons.
From the current situation, there is no shortage of cultivated land in the world, but the growth of per unit yield is relatively slow, which requires great attention. Strengthening ecological improvement, building a reasonable management system, and promoting the application of modern science and technology in agriculture determine the future world food security.
Post time: Apr-08-2024