On April 25, in a report released by the Brazilian National Meteorological Institute (Inmet), a comprehensive analysis of the climate anomalies and extreme weather conditions caused by El Nino in Brazil in 2023 and the first three months of 2024 is presented.
The report noted that the El Nino weather phenomenon has doubled rainfall in southern Brazil, but in other areas, rainfall has been well below average. Experts believe that the reason is that between October last year and March this year, the El Nino phenomenon caused several rounds of heat waves to enter the northern, central and western regions of Brazil, which limited the progress of cold air masses (cyclones and cold fronts) from the southern tip of South America to the north. In previous years, such a cold air mass would go north to the Amazon River basin and meet the hot air to form large-scale rainfall, but since October 2023, the area where the cold and hot air meet has advanced to the southern region of Brazil 3,000 kilometers away from the Amazon River basin, and several rounds of large-scale rainfall have been formed in the local area.
The report also points out that another significant effect of El Nino in Brazil is the increase in temperature and the displacement of high temperature zones. From October last year to March this year, the highest temperature records in the history of the same period have been broken across Brazil. In some places, the maximum temperature was 3 to 4 degrees Celsius above the record peak. Meanwhile, the highest temperatures occurred in December, the southern Hemisphere spring, rather than January and February, the summer months.
In addition, experts say that the strength of El Nino has decreased since December last year. This also explains why spring is hotter than summer. The data show that the average temperature in December 2023, during the South American spring, is warmer than the average temperature in January and February 2024, during the South American summer.
According to Brazilian climate experts, the strength of El Nino will gradually ease from late autumn to early winter this year, that is, between May and July 2024. But immediately after that, the occurrence of La Nina will become a high probability event. La Nina conditions are expected to begin in the second half of the year, with surface temperatures in tropical waters in the central and eastern Pacific falling significantly below average.
Post time: Apr-29-2024